Paris, Algeria

3 March 2003


Arab Immigration May Explain French Policy

A significant but unreported element in the latest French stubbornness about Iraq is the rather sizable number of Arabs resident in France. Just as its substantial Jewish population has effects on American politics, it is not beyond belief that French politics and foreign policy are, in no small part, driven by the presence of so many Muslims and Arabs.

The rise of Jean Marie Le Pen's National Front was in reaction to the presence of these immigrants, and visitors can see firsthand many places in French cities where Arabic is more common than French, as if he Battle of Tours has come out the other way. Moreover, many of these districts are poor and crowded -- ideal ground for rioting.

Is it possible that one of the ingredients in France's difficult attitude toward war with Iraq includes an appeasement of these people? Yes, the Chirac administration is trying to create a role for the Fifth Republic greater than its middle-weight power merits. However, imagine if Mr. Chirac had decided to back America the way Prime Minister Tony Blair has done. It is not inconceivable that domestic tranquility could have suffered. No French President can afford to have his cities burnt, but that might have been the outcome of a pro-American line.

So, it may benefit the Bush White House to consider that Mr. Chirac is playing to his