Who Are Those Guys?

31 March 2003


Wargaming the Wrong Enemy

A true patriot will criticize those in power not when it is safe, but when it is needed most. With that in mind, the Bush administration and the Pentagon have already gotten their war of aggression off to a bad start. If America is going to do this damn silly thing, then let it not be in this damn silly way. It is not too late to undo the mistakes, but they are mistakes and saying otherwise is unpatriotic.

The New Yorker will report this week that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, no fewer than six times, demanded the War Department (because that is what it is) reduce the troop requirements to launch Operation Iraqi Freedom. Politics may have demanded it, but military science has taught, over the centuries, that a 3:1 advantage is preferable when attacking, and more when the defender is dug in. Also, 10:1 is needed to take a guerrilla force down. Coalition troops have not met this threshold.

Next, there is no northern front. A thousand airborne plus Kurdish fighters do hold Iraqi troops in place, but they are not driving on Baghdad, not eroding enemy fighting capacity, nor are they adequate to do so. The 4th infantry division (mechanized) should have been pouring down from Turkey by now, but must take a two-week trip to Kuwait to come up from the south onto Baghdad. This is why diplomacy, even sham diplomacy, could have gone on for another month -- American forces were not in position.

Next, Baghdad TV is still broadcasting. The argument for it, that it allows the West to do bomb damage assessment, and to find out how Saddam personally is, holds little water. The only side that the coalition wants the world to hear is its own. Broadcasting into Iraq over Iraqi TV and radio should have happened March 18. Control of the airwaves is as important as control of the airways.

Finally, there have been no mass surrenders. American and British troops are not being treated as liberators (yet, says the Pentagon). Planning that there would be a welcoming committee outside each hamlet is not military planning but rather wishful thinking. When General William Wallace announced that the Americans hadn't wargamed against this enemy, the cat was out of the bag -- this plan is trash.

To fix the mess, the war's objective must be recalled -- removal of the Ba'athist regime. Destruction of the Iraqi army is incidental to that, taking cities other than Baghdad is unnecessary, holding the western desert has value only as a staging post. We must remember that civilian casualties are going to occur, and deaths among coalition forces will climb drastically. And quitting isn't an option.