Running Man

11 August 2003


Arnold Schwarznegger Can Win

"Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger of California" may be a phrase that brings more than a titter to a conversation, but it became a likelihood last week when The Terminator decided to throw his hat into the ring in the weird race to possibly replace Gray Davis in the governor's office in Sacramento. His probably victory comes not from his own political acumen, experience and vision, but rather from the strange political situation in California.

Thanks to a constitution that permits the recall of the governor whenever petitioners can gather enough signatures, Governor Gray Davis could be voted out of office on October 7. This is the first question on the ballot, and one either votes for or against Mr. Davis. At the same time, voters will select his successor from a list on a first-past-the-post vote -- whoever gets the most votes wins. The quality of the candidates against Mr. Schwarzenegger is dubious, and those of any quality lack his name recognition.

Unless Governor Davis gets the courts to stop the election, he will have a hard time getting 50%+1 of the vote to stay governor. Mr. Schwarzenegger could probably pull 20% of the vote just on the public's familiarity with him -- and that might be enough. If he uses his own considerable wealth and campaigns even at a sophomoric level, he can add to that.

Can California survive with such a leader? President Reagan did little damage to California as governor, at least, nothing Jerry Brown couldn't fix. Minnesota is still afloat despite having a former pro-wrestler at the helm for years. What is troubling is that whoever follows Governor Davis is likely to get the blame for whatever pain is caused in cleaning up the mess. That and the fact that the voters of California have not been made to live with their electoral decision in selecting Mr. Davis in the first place.

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