West Keeps Lid On

1 September 2003


Iraqi Civil War Brewing

After Friday prayers, the Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir al-Hakim, Iraq's Khomenei as some have called him, was blown up by car bombs. Another 74 people joined him in death, and there were 140 odd wounded. While the culprits were not immediately named, there is little doubt that the assassination was carried out by Iraqis. Just what the western powers in Iraq need, a civil war.

Civil war in Iraq is a more natural situation than in some countries because Iraq is such an unnatural country. Kurds in the north, then a Sunni minority, and Shi'ites in the majority -- all very ancient peoples, all with ancient animosities (and some modern ones) against each other. Throw in the collapse of a fascist regime and loads of unaccounted for weapons, and further killings are only to be expected.

Blaming the occupiers for lax security is an unfortunate distraction from the realities of Iraq. It is an untenable nation and probably ought to be three different states. Yet the post-colonial regimes of Asia and Africa have a heavy vested interest in ensuring that the territorial integrity of existing states does not come into question. The birth of Eritrea in Africa and the freedom of East Timor in Asia were delay unconscionably long because of this attachment to the status quo.

Still, the western powers are there, and they can do some good in keeping a lid on any hostilities. The fact is that so long as Iraq is occupied, Iraqis can't fight each other in any massive way. The entire sorry incident does add another factor to any exit strategy -- leaving Iraq's opposition with a big enough stake in the new system to remain a political rather than a military force.

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