Committee Room 14

3 November 2003


British Tories Oust IDS -- Assure Mr. Blair Another Victory

When it comes to ineffective opposition parties, those more interested in being right than winning power, the American Democrats have had few rivals. Last week, a challenger arose in the form of the British Conservative Party, which formed a circular firing squad and removed Iain Duncan-Smith as its leader. While it is too early to say who the new leader will be, it is almost a certainty that he will lose the next general election for the Tories.

IDS, as he has been known, never really had the backing of his party in Parliament. He came to power in a run-off among Tory party activists after the Parliamentary Party gave him 54 out of 165 votes. In the latest unpleasantness, he scored 75 votes but needed 83. So the Conservatives are a party in search of a potential prime minister.

The Tories timing could not be worse either. After six years of mushy social democracy, the Labour Party of Tony Blair has got itself into trouble over Iraq, and Mr. Blair's recent health scare has not helped. The Opposition's job hasn't been this easy since the 20th century. Yet, the Tories stand and wait.

Part of the problem goes beyond IDS and to conservatism itself. The blue-hot ideology of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan is 25 years old. It is a spent force intellectually. That is not to say that there will never be another conservative government in the UK -- indeed, some argue cogently that it currently has one. Rather, the Tories of today are more like their 19th century predecessors, unencumbered by philosophy they simply wish to keep things as they are. Their radicalism is gone.

The amazing part may come at the next general election. If the Tories' self-inflicted wounds don't heal up quickly, they might not be the second biggest party in the House of Commons. Mr. Blair's counterpart in the Opposition could be a Liberal Democrat.

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