Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Putin Announces Partial Withdrawal from Syria
Vladimir Putin has announced that the fight against terrorism in Syria has gone so well that many of his troops can come home. Nevertheless, the Russian air force base at Hmeimim and its naval base at Tartus will stay. Despite the victory over ISIS and others, the Russians are only drawing down their troop levels. The reason is simple. The Russians want to make sure that they don't get caught flatfooted again if the Assad regime has another wobble.
President Putin was at the air force base addressing the troops yesterday. “You are victorious and you are going home to your families, parents, wives, children, and friends. The fatherland is waiting for you, my friends. Have a safe trip home. I am grateful for your service.” Incidentally, he has also recently announced that he would be running for re-election in 2018. Nothing like declaring victory and going home to boost poll numbers. Had the old Soviet regime paid attention to the general unpopularity of the Afghan War, it might have lasted a few more years.
The Russian military intervened in the Syrian Civil War in the summer of 2015 to shore up the Assad regime, which was its only friend in the region. It was important to Moscow to ensure the Tartus base remained as a port of call for the Russian Navy as there was no other welcoming port in the Mediterranean. Mr. Putin has achieved that.
Yet war is merely politics by other means, and with the fighting at an end, the question is “What comes next?” Much of Syria is still not under control of the Syrian military. Various armed groups backed by the west hold a swathe of land between Homs and Aleppo, and they also hold several enclaves in the south. To the north of the former ISIS capital of Raqqa, the Kurds hold the monopoly of force. Neither of these groups is prepared to make a deal with the Assad regime, nor is he prepared to let them have a piece of the action. The result is probably going to be low level conflict for years.
Jihad Yazigi, a Syrian economist and editor of the Syria Report, told the Washington Post, “As he [President Assad] wins and his constituents are sure the war is over, there will be new expectations he is unable to meet. We’re not going to have anything close to reconciliation, and there is no money.”
In order to feel secure in its position in the region, Russia needs a stable ally. “The legitimization of the regime is something really quite important for the Russians, and that’s not going to happen with the current regime,” said a senior Western diplomat who spoke to the Washington Post anonymously. “The legitimization of the regime is necessary for Russia to have a politically secure environment for its presence.”
A politically secure environment requires legitimacy of the regime. That cannot happen while Bashir al Assad is president. President Assad, however, isn't going anywhere and doesn't want to share power. Why should he give up anything in victory if he held onto it when things were not going well?
President Putin understands this as well as anyone. He has to find a way to create a legitimate Syrian regime that will let him keep his troops in the country. If he cannot do that, he will keep the troops in the country to ensure that the current regime stays in power. The partial withdrawal is largely cosmetic.
© Copyright 2017 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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