Hot Air, and Wet

8 September 2004



Hurricanes May Decide Election

More than one American mayor has been thrown out of office because he didn’t get the streets cleared quickly enough after a blizzard. Florida, which Nature may be punishing for its butterfly ballot in the 2000 election, has taken two direct hits from Hurricanes Charley and Frances, with Hurricane Ivan headed its general direction. While neither Mr. Bush nor Mr. Kerry can take the credit or blame for the response of the government to the dreadful conditions in Florida, the fact remains that that response may decide which candidate gets Florida’s electoral votes.

There are currently about 6 million Floridians without electricity. That means no refrigeration either, and the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) has to make sure these people have food. Army rations, the feared MREs, have turned up in Florida already. After the lights come on and the clean up gets fully underway, dispersal of emergency funds is vital. One might tip this to the president’s column on the grounds that his brother, Governor Jeb Bush, is going to make absolutely certain that no stone goes unturned to get this right.

However, as days turn into weeks, and especially if Hurricane Ivan puts in a visit, people naturally get impatient, annoyed, and eventually enraged. Long lines for gasoline (when it can be found), lines for food and water, and continued sitting in the dark play to Mr. Kerry’s advantage. If FEMA doesn’t deliver for the people of Florida, they are likely to take it out on the president.

Florida is currently considered a toss-up state, one that could go either way on November2. In 2000, it was the site of the worst bungled election in American history, with just over 500 votes (counted as opposed to cast) deciding the state and the overall election (but Mr. Gore could have won his home state of Tennessee and saved everyone a lot of bother). Just one county sitting without power for a couple of weeks might push Florida to Mr. Kerry. A quick recovery may convince everyone south of Georgia to give W the W.

The hurricanes, thus far, have cost the state only a few billion according to insurers. And Florida is one of the best prepared places in the country for disasters (a hurricane is an annual and quite regular event there). Although Frances killed14, that is more a testament to the power of the storm than anything else. It remains to be seen if a presidential campaign might still be a casualty of Florida’s weather.


© Copyright 2004 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.


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