Getting out the Vote

8 October 2004


Huge Increase in Voter Registration Has Pundits Wondering

One of the factors complicating the jobs of pollsters and talkingheads is the increase in new voter registration. Statistically, it is very difficult to determine what a sudden increase in the pool of voters means before any ballots are cast. The strenuous efforts of both main parties, as well as interest groups, to get new voters to the polls has meant a clouding of the tealeaves. One thing it does prove, though, is that people will register to vote if they feel the election matters. Whether they turn up has yet to be seen.

This election carries the most bitter feelings nationwide since 1972, and possibly rivals 1968 for sheer divisiveness. Between those two elections, the 26th Amendment was ratified and lowered the voting age to 18 thanks to the Vietnam conflict -- “Old enough to die, old enough to vote.” Talk was that all those radicalized kids would change American politics. Some talked of 25 million new voters throwing the old guard out in 1972. Quite the opposite happened.

In 1964, with a population of 191.8 million, 70.6 million Americans voted for president. In 1968 with a population of 200.7 million, some 73 million voted. In 1972, with a lower voting age and a population of 209.9 million, 77.7 million voted. There never was a 25 million to tap. At best, the lowered voting age brought in a million or two voters. And their impact on politics was nil – Mr. Nixon won re-election in a landslide. Much the same occurred when women finally won the right to vote in 1920 with the 19th Amendment. Instead of a feminization of politics, there was the stodginess of Presidents Harding, Coolidge and Hoover.

So these sudden expansions of the franchise to the young and the female, dramatic though they seemed, amounted to little. This year’s much more piecemeal expansion doesn’t target any specific demographic group, except these people haven’t voted before this year. With voter registration ended in a great many states in the next few weeks, the “Get out the vote” (GOTV in the trade) effort shifts from new registrations to getting the registered to the polls. And when one looks at voter turnout, not of the whole population over 18, but of those registered to vote, it shows this new voter talk could be rubbish.

In 1964, 96% of registered voters cast a ballot, and this fell to 90% and 80% in 1968 and 1972 respectively. The trend through the 1980s and 1990s was down, save for the three-way (Clinton, Perot, Bush the Elder) fight in 1992 which still didn’t break 80% participation of registered voters. Will this election break the 70% mark, which neither 1996 or 2000 did? That is the real test of the electorate this year, and one is skeptical.

© Copyright 2004 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.

Home