The 2008 Speculation Has Begun Already

Barely had the last echo of John Kerry’s rather graceful concession speech faded than the pundits began wondering who will run in 2008. With Mr. Kerry defeated, the Democrats will look for something different next time around. And thanks to the Twenty-Second Amendment and Vice President Cheney’s weak heart, there is no heir apparent in the GOP. Three names have already been floated by those with an agenda, but only one of them has a chance. Among Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani and Jeb Bush, only the Floridian has a prayer of making it to the White House.

Senator Clinton’s ambitious would have taken a hit with a Kerry victory, but an honest consideration of her chances should leave any Hillary ’08 campaign buried in the snows of Iowa and New Hampshire. The Democrats have lost most of the elections since 1968 because they have failed to get white men from the South and Midwest to vote their way. Mrs. Clinton doesn’t appeal to them; as one comedian put it, she reminds them all of their first wives. Moreover, her one real chance to get something done, her healthcare initiative as first lady, was a disaster. She huddled with the insurance lobby to draft legislation that was DOA – her instincts were totally wrong. And the right will dredge up everything her husband did to top it off. As nominee, she cedes about 250 of the 270 electoral votes needed right off the bat.

Another New Yorker, former mayor Rudy Giuliani, won a great deal of popularity by not dying during the Al-Qaeda attacks on New York. Those who knew who he was before will recall a New York horribly divided by race, minority communities that plainly didn’t trust men and women with badges (Google “Amadou Diallo” to find out why), and cosmetic changes to a public school system that still doesn’t work. But the real killer for a Giuliani run for the White House is his pro-choice stand in the past. The people who voted for Mr. Bush in Ohio won’t vote for “America’s Mayor” in the Republican Primaries.

Jeb Bush, on the other hand, may well be the business. There is no doubt that he can carry the South. He has the name. And while he won’t win New York or California, math proves he doesn’t need to do so. The only other current stars in the GOP firmament are Ahr-nold (who would need a constitutional amendment to run) and Senator McCain (who has already been brutalized by the Bush machine).

Then again, a week is a long time in politics. Four years is more than 200 long times. New candidates will emerge between now and the Iowa caucuses 2008. The smart money says the nominees may not even be household names in 2004.


© Copyright 2004 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.


Home