President Bush: A Lame Duck with a Mandate

Later this week, George W. Bush will take the oath of office as President of the United States for the second time – proof positive that democracy still has some kinks to be worked out. However, with a majority of voters backing him this time, he can legitimately claim that the people are behind him regardless of what they tell pollsters. And thanks to the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution, this is Mr. Bush’s last term as president. It is an odd combination of power and powerlessness that could prove more dangerous than the first term was.

In the first instance, Mr. Bush knows the clock is ticking, and he has told those around him that his window of opportunity to get things done is about two years. After the mid-term elections, the focus on the 2008 presidential election will undermine his position – and he is correct. If the GOP does well enough in the 2006 mid-terms, he might squeeze a third year of political relevance out of it, but he can’t plan to do so. As a result, all of his efforts must focus on getting what he wants in two years. If a project takes longer, it ceases to be part of his legacy, something presidents start worrying about shortly after the second inauguration.

So, he is in a mad dash to “fix” Social Security, and this has the potential to split his party. Some Republicans would rather he tackle the tax code, and if he insists on tinkering with the financial infrastructure of the US, he’d be better off getting rid of his massive deficits. Others want to privatize Social Security to a degree by letting workers keep some of their Social Security taxes in private investment accounts. This has the downside of a $1 trillion or so price tag for transition costs, which make it a hard sell.

Abroad, the Iraqi Civil War continues to kill. Mr. Bush is probably aware that if he doesn’t have peace there by 2008, he will be judged a failure as president. The problem is that many jihadists don’t seem to want to cooperate with his legend-building. The National Guard and the Reserves are close to the breaking point, according to the Pentagon, and it is hard to see that improving without withdrawals. As Lyndon Johnson could attest were he alive, it is easy to get into a war, but rather harder to get out.

And then, there is Iran, which Sy Hersh at the New Yorker claims is on the Bush White House’s radar for this summer. As usual, it is best to let Mr. Hersh’s own words tell the story.

“This is a war against terrorism, and Iraq is just one campaign. The Bush Administration is looking at this as a huge war zone,” the former high-level intelligence official told me [Mr. Hersh]. “Next, we’re going to have the Iranian campaign. We’ve declared war and the bad guys, wherever they are, are the enemy. This is the last hurrah—we’ve got four years, and want to come out of this saying we won the war on terrorism.”