Monty Hall Goes to Washington

28 February 2005



Democrats Assail Bush on Social Security, Drug Prices

Mr. Bush had barely returned from his "Kiss and Make-Up" Tour of Europe than the Democrats took to the airwaves to complain about his policies. The opposition to Mr. Bush's Social Security changes ("reform" is too elegant a word) is solid, and may be the one thing that unites the Democrats beyond all others. Running at them as Mr. Bush is doing merely serves to reinforce their unity. At the same time, they also complained about his stance on bringing prescription drugs down from Canada. It smells like a deal is in the offing.

Part of the GOP on Capitol Hill has been uncomfortable with the president's Social Security plans since before the election. Many economists who are normally sympathetic (e.g., Alan Greenspan) have said that while they prefer private investment accounts, the changes will do nothing to address the potential insolvency of the system. Polls show that a majority of voters like things the way they are, and the $1 trillion transition costs boost that majority's size. And if there is one issue that pulls together the old Rooseveltian coalition of minorities and the working class, its government provided old age pensions.

As for the importation of drugs from Canada, the Bush administration has claimed that the existing constraints are based on concern for American consumers. Never mind that a substantial portion of the drugs in the Canadian market were manufactured in the US and exported there in the first place. Or that the Canadians seem quite happy to take them (and the average Canadian lives longer than the average American while paying more than a thousand American dollars less a year for healthcare). Or that the same administration seems happy to import Canadian beef, mad cow disease threats and all.

These two problems come together in Mr. Bush's prescription drug benefit passed last year. Initially priced at around $350 billion, the real estimates of $520 billion or so were suppressed to secure Republican votes in Congress. The cost is now likely to hit $750 billion. He can't afford his Social Security changes, and he can't afford his prescription drug program. But the combination of these can result in everybody winning, except the drug companies (which insist on being called "pharmaceutical firms"). Mr. Bush can accept drug importation as a way to cut the cost of the prescription drug plan and use the notional savings to create some smaller version of his Social Security changes. The drug companies will scream, but they already got a break with the limitations on class action lawsuits. Monty Hall's old game show "Let's Make a Deal" has nothing on Washington. All the same, Mr. Bush's legacy still lies on the banks of the Euphrates and not the Potomac.


© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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