GOP Holds Ohio Seat Against Anti-Bush Iraq-War Vet

In electoral politics, a win is a win no matter how thin the margin of victory. By that measure, the Republicans in Ohio should be happy about holding the seat for the Second Congressional District in that state in yesterday’s general election. Nationwide, though, this result proves that the war in Iraq is starting to damage their 2006 electoral hopes, to say nothing of 2008 and Mr. Bush’s legacy.

The seat fell vacant when Congressman Rob Portman received an appointment as US Trade Representative. The Ohio constitution requires a special election to fill such a vacated seat, and after reasonably contested primaries, Republican Jean Schmidt got her party’s nod, while the Democrats nominated Paul Hackett, a Marine who just returned from service in Ramadi and Fallujah.

The Second CD in Ohio is in the western part of the state on the border with Kentucky. It is not a hotbed of left-wing politics by any stretch of the imagination. Former Congressman Portman won re-election time and again with 70% of the vote, and Mr. Bush got 64% in the race against Senator Kerry. Congresswoman-elect Schmidt held the safe Republican seat but garnered only 52% of the votes, while Mr. Hackett got 48%. Mr. Hackett is pro-guns (he argues responsibility over prohibition), argues that abortion needs to be “safe, legal and rare” and runs away from militant green-ism while being environmentally prudent (“you don’t have to be a tree-hugger to conserve energy”). He laid out a pretty moderate position in the Cincinnati Post at the beginning of the campaign, “I'm for limiting government. I'm for fiscal responsibility. I'm for a strong national defense. I'm for fair trade.”

He also ran against the president, whom he called a “chicken hawk.” He told USA Today that the president’s “Bring ‘em on” challenge to terrorists was “the most incredibly stupid comment I've ever heard a president of the United States make.” And he told the paper, "I've said that I don't like the son-of-a-b—— that lives in the White House but I'd put my life on the line for him." The USA Today was too scared to print that the Marine combat veteran had called the commander-in-chief a “son of a bitch,” but he did. And when the GOP attacked him for it, he stood his ground (Marines tend not to run from fights) saying in a radio interview, “I said it. I meant it. I stand by it.”

What should give the GOP reason to worry is the 12-16% swing against the party’s candidate [depending on whether it's measured against the Bush or Portman victory margin] in a district that is so solidly Republican. It is statistically unsound to project that nationwide and extrapolate results, but suffice it to say a swing that large in a place that Republican means the Democrats have an issue – Iraq. Having said they wouldn’t “cut and run,” the administration must now find a way out of Iraq that looks like victory, and the White House has less than a year to do it. Election Day 2006 is 15 months off, and Mr. Bush could lose the House of Representatives at this rate. Meanwhile, Mr. Hackett is probably going back to Iraq.


© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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