Washington Lowers War Expectations

War is politics by other means, according to Clausewitz, and not just getting there “firstest with the mostest.” This was, of course, something the neo-cons in the White House and elsewhere in the corridors of power thought they understood, but did not. The US was never going to lose the Iraq war militarily, but the policymakers in Washington have just about guaranteed a political loss when measured by war aims. A report in Sunday’s Washington Post says even the White House is defining victory downwards.

The plan was to march into Baghdad and clean it out once and for all. Democracy and free markets would create a showcase for the modern, liberal (in the classic sense of that word) society that made thirteen rebellious colonies into the hyperpower that is America in 220 years. The Iraqi people would celebrate their liberation with peaceful cooperation with the new authorities, and the oil wealth of the country would pay for this grand experiment in benevolent imperialism.

Instead, the Post reporters Robin Wright and Ellen Knickmeyer wrote, “The United States no longer expects to see a model new democracy, a self-supporting oil industry or a society in which the majority of people are free from serious security or economic challenges. . . .” Another official, speaking on conditions of anonymity, told them, "We set out to establish a democracy, but we're slowly realizing we will have some form of Islamic republic." Another equally anonymous source said, "We've said we won't leave a day before it's necessary. But necessary is the key word -- necessary for them or for us? When we finally depart, it will probably be for us."

No plan survives first contact with the enemy – not in war nor in politics. But there is no excuse for fighting and winning a war militarily and then failing to achieve one’s political objectives. When America leaves Iraq, there will not be a stable democracy there. There will not be freedom for most people as westerners think of it. And there won’t be enough oil to export to pay for any development. The result will be a dysfunctional society, a continuing civil war (it’s been going on for at least two years, but no one seems to have the guts in Washington to call it by its real name), and no way forward for at least a generation.

President Bush said in his radio address on Saturday, “Iraqis are taking control of their country, building a free nation that can govern itself, sustain itself and defend itself. And we're helping Iraqis succeed.” There are two interpretations for this Pollyanna posturing. Either the president is lying, or he’s genuinely out of touch with the facts through sheer stupidity or a staff unwilling to force them on their leader. One rather hopes he’s lying – it is the lesser evil.


© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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