Minutes, Not Hours

26 September 2005



Hurricanes’ Lesson Teaches Less Evacuation, More Protection

Two major American cities have had to be evacuated in the past few weeks. In New Orleans, the “mandatory” evacuation resulted in the shame on American honor that the hells of the Superdome and the Convention Center became. In Houston, where people were on edge because of the mess New Orleans has become, the traffic backed up 100 miles or so as people tried to flee. What these events teach, and what the government doesn’t seem to understand, is that huge populations cannot be moved quickly. In the event of a terrorist attack, the people will not have a couple of days, but maybe a couple of minutes. Evacuation is a strategy doomed to fail.

While this journal has maintained that Al Qaeda and its fellow travelers have no effective combatants in the US for years (as evidenced by a lack of attacks on US territory), one cannot rule out a possible attack. Unlike a hurricane, there will be no advanced warning. There won’t be two or three days in which to load up the SUV and get the family to a Hilton three area codes away. Yet the president, the Pentagon and the Heimatschutzministerium [Department of Homeland Security in the original totalitarian] are all talking about evacuation plans. This is the wrong strategy.

In the event of a terror attack on a US city involving conventional weapons, even in the extreme case like the September 11 attacks, American cities are large enough, resilient enough and possess sufficient resources to overcome even the disaster of the World Trade Center. But, if a nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological weapon is employed, a national response will be required. Moreover, earthquakes don’t seem to offer any warning, and one of sufficient size will necessitate a similar response.

But until the cavalry turns up, America must forget about getting 95% of the population out of town. Houston and its environs required a whole day to clear out. Evacuation will largely result in sitting in traffic while germs, fallout or mustard gas waft along the interstate infecting and affecting everyone idling there. And the electromagnetic pulse of a nuke will prevent planes, trains and automobiles from working at all.

The appropriate solution is a serious attempt at civil defense a la 1953. "Protect and survive" is a stupid idea if the opposition has thousands of nukes as the old Soviet Union did, but if the bad guys have a single bomb or at most a pair, it becomes smart. Shelters fully stocked with medical equipment, food and water must be resurrected and improved. Schools, churches, and shopping malls need to become bunkers, and homes need to be equipped as well. And if America doesn’t do it, the Superdome is going to start to look good. This will cost lots of money, and there will be no immediate, obvious benefit. Much like the flood insurance most people in the Gulf didn’t buy. They wish they had, and America will wish it had adopted a strategy that could work instead of evacuation.


© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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