A Riper Political Climate?

10 February 2003


Terror Threat Rises to Orange from Yellow

US intelligence sources say that the terrorist cells that hate America and its pals have increased their "chatter." By that, they mean that more intercepted communications suggest "something bad" may happen. The color coded scale of threat is a wonderful way to warn people that excuses responsibility, means little, and is almost certain not to save a single life.

Admittedly, part of the problem is the nature of terrorism; it works only when there is some surprise and that makes warnings dicey. However, the orange code means that Americans in Kabul and Kansas City can all sleep with one eye open. And when some attack occurs in, say, Kenya, the Department of Homeland Security can say "We warned you."

The most amusing part is the contention by many on both the left and the right that the heightened alert itself may prevent an attack by letting the enemy know that the west is prepared. If it were true, simple declare a red (severe) threat and have done with it. The fact is that there is no way to know why an attack doesn't occur -- empirical study does not work on events that don't happen.

The worrying part, though, is what happens next. Returning the threat level to yellow at some point in the future may signal that the US is relaxing its guard, and provoke an attack. Leaving at orange will eventually lessen the significance of the "high" risk America faces. A modest suggestion: Until Usama bin Laden is hanged, put the country at DefCon 1 -- the US is at war.