| The Yanks Aren't Coming |
21 April 2003
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Syria Weathers Washington's Storm
"Syria's next" is the biggest untruth in world politics, and everyone in Washington and Damascus who matters knows it. While it is true that the US has the troops to take the Syrian capital and do for Ba'athism there what it did for this Arab brand of fascism in Iraq, it isn't about to do so. The next piece of the American Imperial jigsaw requires a diplomatic coup, and Syrian Dictator/President Bashir-al-Assad is the man to deliver it.
Washington now wants and needs a settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian problem, and an end to the terrorism it harbors. Syria remains the only Arab state on Israel's border that hasn't opted for non-war. America has been able to get the Israelis to agree to just about anything, and it is the Arabs who have never missed a chance to miss a chance. This time, though, Syria is surrounded -- America to one side, Israel on another, Turks and Kurds lurking nearby. The threat is more effective than the use of force.
So before the Kitty Hawk and Constellation battle groups get clear of the Gulf, Secretary of State Colin Powell will go to Syria and lay out the new "road map" for peace. The map's details don't much matter, but it is important who is America's car. Syria gets to ride shot-gun if it wants. Washington has the stick, but the carrot of making Syria's ex-ophthalmologist President the biggest Arab leader since Nasser (and more successful) is the ploy Mr. Powell will be using.
Ba'athist Syria had little love for Ba'athist Iraq. For those aware of the Trotsky-Stalin rift, this is understandable. The Assads and the Husseins never liked one another -- too much alike. But Hussein's departure leaves a void in the Arab world, the leader who can defy the West even while getting his backside kicked. Syria must merely make a couple of weak demands while surrendering, and Bashir will be that leader. Mr. Powell is normally quite a persuasive man -- with 100,000 troops behind him, he can be a kingmaker.