| A Ceasarean Occupation |
Date 2003
|
Iraq Divided Among Occupiers
All of Iraq is divided into three parts, to paraphrase Gauis Julius Caesar. The US will take the center of the country, including Baghdad; the British will administer the south, where Her Majesty's forces have operated throughout the affair; and Poland (remember Poland actually sent troops to fight) will administer the north, including Kurdish-Iraq. The Bush team, without the UN, has managed to internationalize the occupation and still retain control.
Regardless of what anyone might say, the occupation of Iraq is likely to be measured more in decades than any other unit of time. The withdrawal of American forces from Saudi Arabia was a major signal of this policy. Iraq cannot defend itself from enemies, either internal or external, until it has a military and police force that can be trusted to protect reather than abuse the people. While staffing can be done in a matter of weeks, changing attitudes will take years. Until then, no matter how quietlty and softly, foreign troops will stay in Iraq, just as they have stayed in Germany and Japan.
What is most notable about this arrangement is the UN's role (virtually none, despite a "humanitarian presence") and the composition of the occupying authority -- Germany and France were not even invited to the meeting that decided things. The precedent has been set. Then the US makes a move, those who help will be allowed to participate in the policy; those who do not, will have made themselves irrelevant.
What is ironic about this arrangement is that France and Germany, in particular, were trying to avoid precisely this arrangement. With their blundering diplomacy, they have reduced their international influence to the point where they matter less than Poland. Perhaps it is karma for 1939.