Keeping Friends Close

21 July 2003


Tony Blair under Attack

Could it be that Her Majesty's Prime Minister, the Right Honourable Tony Blair, MP, PC, made his last appearance in America as head of government when he addressed a joint session of Congress last week? Judging by Mr. Blair's popularity on the west side of the Atlantic, the question is non-sense, however, the pressure continues to build on him in the House of Commons, and with the Labour Party Conference coming up this September, his days might be numbered.

The fundamental problem facing Mr. Blair is the perception that he lied to Parliament in preparation for the Anglo-American war on Iraq. Polls say most Britons opposed the war at the time it was begun, and a significant number of Labour MPs, most notably Robin Cook who resigned over it, opposed the war. The Tory Party of Iain Duncan-Smith voted largely with Mr. Blair's faction to ensure broad Parliamentary support for the war. The Tories won't be at the Labour Party Conference in Bournemouth to vote with him, but he will face a great many angry activists there.

Of course, a great big pile of enriched uranium can turn up in a Baghdad city dump between now and then, and if it does, Mr. Blair could wind up being PM for life. Happy endings, though, are rare in politics.

The old observation that "you can't beat somebody with nobody," does not apply here, either. Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, MP, PC, has thought of himself as Mr. Blair's successor (and he is not alone in his thinking). Indeed, the Blair-Brown partnership has made New Labour what it is in most respects. However, the New Statesman ran an article questioning Mr. Blair's sanity, and oddly enough, it is run by one of Mr. Brown's friends and former Treasury colleagues. Many said it was run in response to an earlier attack on Mr. Brown by the Blairites. Big parliamentary majorities bring in-fighting.

As Mr. Blair noted in his speech to the American Congress, the warm welcome he was accorded is not something he is used to, nor is there any hope of him becoming reacquainted to it on his return home. The most he can hope for is a quiet August, or the "Silly Season" as vacation time is known among the British Media.