| Ally or Enemy |
28 July 2003
|
Saudi Influence Classified
That there was official involvement by the Saudi government in the attack America September 11, 2001 is
unlikely. That there were Saudi government "rogue" agents involved will be a matter of conspiracy
theories for years to come. That 15 of the 19 murderers were Saudi nationals is beyond dispute. And so
America must be very careful in how it encourages democracy in Saudi Arabia, because there are a great
many Saudis to whom the US is an evil regardless of how nicely the royal family acts.
American policy on Saudi Arabia is already changing as a result of the conquest of Iraq. US troop levels
in Saudi Arabia are set to fall, and the need for those troops all along was Saddam Hussein. Since he is
gone, there is no compelling reason to based American military assets in the desert kingdom.
Unfortunately, there remains a lot of oil under the sand, and therefore, the repressive culture indigenous
to the region will continue to matter to the west. Weening the developed world away from oil would take
decades even if the political will to do so existed. The options are few for Saudi citizens as well: the
current oiligarchy, a different mob of oiligarchs, a cautious move to democracy spread out over years and
subject to reversal at any moment, or an outright violent revolution that can't be controlled resulting in
Allah knows what.
None of these is particularly appealing. Not surprisingly, the Bush administration seems to be opting for
the third, a slow transition to democracy -- after all, it resonates with the basic beliefs of Americans.
Except for the slow part. Americans are not noted for their patience. This will be the challenge, to keep
the west in general and the US in particular engaged in changing Saudi Arabia over the long haul.
On the other hand, if it turns out that the 28-pages in the report on the al-Qaeda attacks that have been
classified are covering up for the Saudi regime, the only acceptable solution is building Disneyland
Arabia where Mecca used to be.