| Simon Says Win |
25 August 2003
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Bill Simon Quits to Save GOP's California Campaign
Over the week-end, Bill Simon pulled out of the governor's race in the California recall farce. Mr. Simon said there were simply too many Republicans in the race. In doing so, he has highlighted the real flaw in the Republicans' plans -- with more than one candidate, they will lose. This sort of circular firing squad approach to elections is more often associated with the Democrats.
The Democrats have put together the strongest possible hand for themselves by putting up only the current Lieutenant Governor, Cruz Bustamante. Mr. Bustamante's qualifications and abilities aside, as the lone Democrat in the race, he locks up at least 1/3 of the vote because serious Democrats have no where else to go.
The party has worried that his candidacy undermines the campaign to keep Governor Davis -- the theory being that if the choice is Davis or a Republican, Davis will win. That theory was never closely aligned with reality. With Mr. Bustamante in the race, the Democrats can keep the governor's office with less than the 50%+1 majority Mr. Davis constitutionally needs.
The GOPers have Mr. Schwarzenegger as their front runner, but the latest poll has him at around 22% with Mr. Bustamante around 35%. Yet the Republican party's leading candidates combined (including the 6% who had backed Mr. Simon) have 47%. In a proportional voting system, single-transferable vote or something similar, this wouldn't matter. In a first-past-the-post election, where a plurality carries the day, it is a disaster. If the California Republican Party has any machinery or officials, action is needed, or they will blow the biggest chance to whack the Democrats they have had in years.
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