| Bye-Bye Election |
22 September 2003
|
Brent East Goes to Liberal Dems
Depending on which paper one reads or to which commentator one listens, either Tony Blair personally lost a parliamentary seat in the Brent East (in
London
) by-election or Labour as a party lost it, or the Tories lost it by coming third. What is certain is that Liberal Democrat Sarah Teather will be sitting in the House of Commons. What is also certain is that this protest vote will not turn into a tidal wave against Labour until the parties outside of government get their separate agendas clear.
The Tories are in the worst shape of any party in Parliament. Their leader, Mr. Iain Duncan-Smith, is a fine example of how to succeed in politics without showmanship,
charisma
or glibness. Yet, the party under his stewardship has accomplished nothing in opposition beyond splitting itself over
Europe
. The Thatcherite, white-hot passion for ideology is gone, and there is now no reason to vote Tory except that that is what Mater and Pater always did.
The Liberal Democrats, for whom one has always had a soft spot (including when they were just "Liberals"), have a problem in convincing anyone that they are capable of being a party of government. Not since Lloyd-George has that been a
remote
electoral possibility. Taking a seat from Labour at a by-election this far into Mr. Blair's premiership is no reason to think things have changed.
Labour benefits from this only to the degree that Mr. Blair remains trusted and resolute. The latter is in his hands, the former is not. The plain truth is that the people who put him in at Number 10 Downing Street don't believe him anymore. Not after Iraq.
Calls
for his resignation are likely to increase, and Labour has Gordon Brown, Jack Straw, David Blunkett and Geoff Hoon waiting for their turns as PM. While Mr. Brown is the likely successor, the fact that is that any of them could run a government with the kind of majority Labour has right now, and make a go of it. Mr. Blair's problem is that any of these men could do his job and do so without the baggage of Iraq (save perhaps for Mr. Straw).
Mr. Blair will have the benefit of a nicely stage managed party conference starting on the 28 in Bournemouth, and that could hush everyone up for a while. However, there is a rhythm and life to every British PM's time in office. Mr. Blair has reached the stage where the people are tired of him. If he doesn't get them interested and on his side in the next twelve months, the question will be "Did he jump, or was he pushed?"
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