Perhaps, Perhaps Not

27 October 2003


Iran Suspends Uranium Enrichment

The Islamic Republic of Iran announced last Tuesday that it would sign an additional protocol to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty allowing for unannounced inspections of its sites. It also said it would, for an “interim period,” stop enriching uranium to show its goodwill. It also reserved its right to "enjoy peaceful use of nuclear energy in accordance with the Nonproliferation Treaty.” The Russian saying, "Trust but verify," springs to mind.

Dobervai no proverai indeed; Iran has the second largest proven reserves of oil in the world, consumes about 1 million barrels of oil daily, and ships out an additional 2.5 million. The US Department of Energy says Iran plans to boost production to 5.6 million bbl/d by 2010 and 7.3 million bbl/d by 2020. Ah, yes, enjoying the peaceful use of nuclear power.

The Iranian government got a little caught up in its own A-bomb program, and they managed to get not just the US but the EU angry with them. The International Atomic Energy Agency gave Iran a 31 October deadline to halt their uranium enrichment activities. So, like any good political group, Iran's Supreme National Security Council arranged a climb down that looks like an act of statesmanship and that leaves open the opportunity to make The Bomb when no one is looking.

The exact date on which this "interim period" is to start has not been announced. Nor is there a date for the signing of the additional protocol. And of course, most of Iran's nuclear development sites are not next to the Tehran Hilton, but are out in the desert. Surprise inspections will require some logistical arrangements, and that means time, which is tantamount to a warning.

The move by Iran is welcome, make no mistake, and if this analysis is wrong, so much the better. Iran without The Bomb is the idea; if the mullahs want to deal with the mess of spent fuel rods, it is a matter of environmentalism (significant), not proliferation (disastrous). However, it is best for all concerned if the trust this act has created is not abused by putting it to the test.

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