Get a Job

10 November 2003


US Unemployment Problem Eases A Bit

The champagne was not yet uncorked at the White House, but it was on ice as the government announced that unemployment in the US dropped from 6.1% to 6.0% in October. If employment gets better and if there aren't too many bodybags coming back to Dover Air Force Base, goes their thinking, Bush the Lesser will get another four years. His timing appears to be better than his father's.

Naturally, the trend is the important thing here. From now until election day 2004, the number of jobs create is going to matter. When he took office, Mr. Bush became president of a nation where unemployment was only 4.1%. No one expects that figure to be reached in the next twelve months; they may hope it gets there, and it is not out of the question, but there is no such expectation.

What the pundits are looking at is lower inventories and productivity increases that simply cannot be sustained. What they are missing is the continuing march of jobs, particularly in manufacturing, overseas. The key to this whole situation is the extent to which the jobs that America needs done can be exported. Infrastructure workers are probably in good shape, but customer-service call centers are much cheaper in the Caribbean and in India than in the US, as is the quality of English spoken.

The other factor, the 800-pound gorilla about which no one wishes to talk, is the possibility of another terror attack in the US. It is extremely unlikely, as the Kensington Review has said for months, that the US mainland (homeland, rodina, vaterland) will be the site of an attack for the next several months. Nonetheless, the economic effect would undo months of work.

Naturally, that wouldn't adversely affect Mr. Bush's re-election hopes. He could wrap himself in the flag and the number of unemployed wouldn't matter in the polling booth.

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