| Drop the "C" |
15 December 2003
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College Football Championship Decided by Computer
College football faces a dreadful problem. In an effort to find a national champion without actually playing a tournament, the Bowl Championship Series [BCS] was established, a computer ranking system that was supposed to resolve, once and for all, which was the best team. Unfortunately, those who created it forgot GIGO -- garbage in, garbage out. And most statistics are definitely "G."
The latest Associate Press poll of sportswriters has ranked Southern Cal first, LSU second and Oklahoma third. The BCS, however, has statistically decided that the championship game will be the Sugar Bowl between LSU and Oklahoma. There is certainly room for debate, but when one considers that Oklahoma didn't win its conference, there's some tortured logic here -- a team has a chance to be best in the nation but is not best in its conference? Or did some Canadian universities sneak into the competition this year? LSU's claim is not much better, having lost to Florida, which finished the year with 8 wins and 4 losses.
If this statistical mess were some weird aberration, it would be easier to accept, but two years ago, Nebraska got to play for the title against Miami. The problem was that Nebraska didn't win its conference either and lost its last game to Colorado in a 62-36 laugher.
Statistics are no substitute for the real thing -- something economists and pollsters would do well to remember. A model is only as good as the assumptions underlying it, and in the case of the BCS, there are clearly some shaky assumptions. The system was supposed to get rid of this sort of arguing, but it has only made it worse.
A small innovation is, perhaps, in order. Take the top 16 teams based on the AP poll. Have them play a single elimination tournament, winner take all. It adds 4 games to the schedule for the top two teams. Let them play until March. Decide it, if it matters so much, by actually playing the game (alternatively, cancel the season and run a simulation to decide the issue). There will be more money for the colleges that do well, there will be more showcase time for the pre-NFL players, and the country can go straight into the NCAA and NAIA basketball tournaments the next week-end.
It isn't like the players will be missed in class anyway; the only joke bigger than the BCS is the idea of scholar-athletes. If only the country put as much argument and concern into which university had the best physics, English or history department.
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