| What Would Caesar Do? |
15 December 2003
|
US and Allies Only in Reconstructing Iraq -- Sort Of
There must be a word in the English language to describe the sort of laughter that followed the reaction of "Old Europe" to the announcement by the White House that only those nations that fought in Iraq would be eligible for part of the reconstruction gravy train. France, Germany and Russia were all gravely disappointed as well as angry that their companies would not get to bid on the next $18.6 billion in contracts. One would think they were new to the game of international diplomacy.
Rule one of that game is that rewards go to those who have earned them. While it is true that they tried to stop Mr. Bush from lying his way into a war he still hasn't quite won (and therefore, merit some moral thanks), they didn't earn the IOUs in the Washington ledger that entitles them to cash prizes. Poles, Italians and Spaniards have died in support of Mr. Bush's policy; their companies can share in the spoils of war. Frenchmen, Germans and Russians have not; they get nothing.
Rule two of the game is read the fine print. Only companies from nations that supported the US war effort (plus Iraq) get to bid on the big contracts, but any company can be a sub-contractor. In other words, Mr. Bush is caving in and is merely blustering now about who may and may not profit from his war. A French subcontractor who wins 50% of a $3 billion contract is better off than a French contractor who gets all of a $1 billion deal.
Rule three of international diplomacy is not to confuse interests and objectives with means. Those nations that impeded the war were trying to prevent American unilateralism from taking root, while at the same time trying to contain a rabid dictator. No doubt they failed at both, but to abandon those principles for a few billion dollars suggests that they really weren't principles at all. Or as Groucho Marx once put it, "We've established what sort of girl you are, now we're just arguing over the price."
And the final rule is that the game never ends. Mr. Bush still has insufficient troops in Iraq to achieve what he hoped would happen already. Ex-military officers are saying that the US forces are stretched about as far as they can go on a global basis. Old Europe has been banned from the contracts (in a sense), but they still have the troops that Mr. Bush needs. He has used the reconstruction stick, and it has not worked. It's carrot time, and Old Europe can just about name its price as the US election approaches.
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