Big Picture

29 December 2003


Pakistan's Musharraf May Have Been Chatter Target

The US and other western security agencies claimed that there was a great deal of "chatter" among those they monitor that may signal an attack by terrorists. Air France canceled some flights to LA, but while the west was gazing at its own navel, Pakistan's president General Pervez Musharraf escaped two assassination attempts. One suspects that that was a major part of the extra jabbering.

Western intelligence appears to be operating a good two years behind facts on the ground. It is undeniable that if Al-Qaeda and its fellow travelers could hit the west, and in particular the United States, they would have done it some time in the last 27 months. The whole "sleeper-cell" paranoia is a hold-over from the days of communists under the bed. There are no effective sleeper cells, and the proof is in the fact that there have been no sleeper-cell attacks. As Al-Qaeda finds itself rolled out of Afghanistan, and anywhere else, the need and desire to strike back increases. Yet, there has been nothing since September 11, 2001.

However, that is not to say that the organization no longer exists and no longer can strike at all. It can still operate where the local population has some sympathy for it, and Pakistan is quite friendly country in many districts. Usama bin Laden himself is likely to be there. And those that are sympathetic to Al-Qaeda must surely hate General Musharraf, the many who has served as Washington's bulwark in the region against the advice of many of his own advisors.

The general, though, is the kind of fellow America needs but shouldn't hold up as an icon. He marched into power in a bloodless coup, ousting Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif who had fired him. So much for the civilian control of the military.

That is not to say, the west shouldn't support him. If Joe Stalin was good enough in the fight against fascism, then General Musharraf is good enough for the fight against Fascislam. It would be nice to have two plans in place, though, one dealing with a successful attack on the general and another dealing with him when he no longer helps in the fight. Both are more likely scenarios than another September 11.

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