| Crystal Ball |
29 December 2003
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Predictions for 2004
With 2004 arriving Thursday of next week, the media have filled dead air and empty space with reviews of 2003. Far more useful is a look ahead. And unlike Nostradamus, the Oracle at Delphi, or the horoscopes in newspapers and magazines, these predictions can be verified thanks to their specificity.
- The Dow and the US dollar will both end up higher December 31, 2004 than they are on December 31, 2003;
- Howard Dean will be nominated by the Democrats at their Boston convention after the Stop-Dean movement never really gets off the ground;
- George W. Bush will be re-elected with around 300 electoral votes. This time he will have more popular votes than any other candidate;
- There will not be peace in the Mid-East 12 months from now. This can be measured by whether a treaty is signed;
- There will be a scurry of activity in Iraq when weapons of mass destruction are allegedly found. The report will be incorrect;
- The space shuttle will not fly in 2004 and discussions of ending its life will begin officially at NASA;
- SARS will return as a scare, but the disease will not be as bad as last year's outbreak as measured by fewer deaths;
- Tony Blair will see his popularity recover slightly. His approval ratings will be higher 12 months from now than they are today;
- There will not be an attack in the US by foreign terrorists -- when it comes to home-grown loonies, all bets are off;
- North Korea's nuclear program will still be a problem;
- Saddam Hussein will be sentenced to death;
No quatrains, no words with double meanings, no chance of misinterpretation -- no lottery numbers either.
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