Rigged Game

19 January 2004


Iowa Caucuses Won't End until June

Some time this week, the media will announce a winner in the Iowa caucuses, helping determine who the Democratic front-runner is, who is still in the race, and who's finished already. However, what the media have largely failed to do is explain precisely what is happening. Like the electoral college that put Mr. Bush in the White House (with some help from the Supreme Court), the Iowa caucus can create a result that appears contrary to democratic principles.

At stake in the caucuses, ultimately, are 55 delegates and 8 alternates who will attend the Democratic National Convention in Boston this summer. There, the party's delegates will vote on the presidential nominee -- it takes 2161 out of the 4321 delegates to win the nomination. However, some of Iowa's delegate slots are set aside for Democratic National Committee members and Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEOS) -- so right off, more than a quarter of the delegation will NOT be chosen by these caucuses. These are part of the 801 so-called "super delegates," who make up about 38% of the national convention total.

Of Iowa's remaining 45, the party will choose them in a cumbersome, three-stage process that begins January 19 but does not end until June 12. The precinct caucuses met on Monday night to select delegates to the county conventions which will convene on March 13. There, county-level delegates will select from their number, and by proportional representation, delegates to the district convention as well as some state convention delegates. District conventions are scheduled for April 24, and delegates to these conventions will select from their number the balance of the state convention's body. On June 12, the state convention will meet to decide who the 45 "elected" Boston-bound delegates are.

After a moment's consideration, it is painfully obvious how this approach (which may have been appropriate for a rural society before mass media and telephony) can yield a delegation that does not reflect Monday's initial voting. Between now and June, some candidates who have won county or district delegates will withdraw from the race. Those delegates may vote as they wish in the later stages. Also, local alliances to maximize county and district level delegations will distort the voting. For example, a supporter of Senator John Edwards may be offered a county delegate's slot if he agrees to back Congressman Dick Gephardt. And if there are other issues at the county level to be decided at that convention, then the Edward's vote never materializes.

Before the week is out, at least one major media outlet will provide a delegate count based on the precinct results. It would be a major surprise if that count proved to be accurate after the June 12 state convention. Meanwhile, ABC News already has this count for the superdelegates: Howard Dean 91; John Kerry 59; Dick Gephardt 50; Wesley Clark 25; Joe Lieberman 21; John Edwards 17; Carol Moseley Braun 4; Al Sharpton 3; and Dennis Kucinich 2.

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