| Write It Off |
9 February 2004
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Winning Without a Single Southern State
The conventional wisdom in American politics says that no one can win the presidency without a decent showing in the south. By south, psephologist and their ilk mean the states of the old Confederacy that left the union during the American Civil War. It has been gaining in population for decades relative to the northeast and central states, and it is more conservative and religious than the rest of the country. It is also unnecessary to White House calculations.
Giving up the south means giving up electoral vote rich Texas and Florida (which is often treated differently given the large Caribbean population, but not slight of hand here -- it counts as Dixie). And it means freeing US foreign policy in future from the stupidity of current oil policy as well as an insane and failed Cuban embargo of more than 40 years.
The math is simple, although the message to carry it out is less so. California (55), New York (31), Pennsylvania (21), Illinois (21), Ohio (20) and Michigan (17) add up to 165 electoral votes -- more than half the magic 270 that means success. New Jersey (15), Massachusetts (12), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (10), put one within 58 votes. The remaining New England states of Connecticut (8), Maine (4), Rhode Island (4), New Hampshire (4) and Vermont (3) are worth 23. Washington State (11), Arizona (10), Colorado (9) and Oregon (7) put the total at 272. Al Gore came very close to succeeding with this approach.
The problem here is putting together a message that appeals to these areas. In most election years, it is simply easier to pander to southern voters and their conservative views. This year, because jobs will matter more than anything else (war included), the first two groups of states are within striking distance of any Democrat because of Mr. Bush's jobless recovery. Also, voters in New England and the west care more about the environment than the established media understand -- or the current administration.
It is true that Washington, Oregon and Colorado, as well as California have conservative regions. It is also true that New England has a certain diversity that outsiders forget (Vermont is dairy country, but most Bostonians have never seen a cow). However, it is possible to run a campaign on jobs, jobs and jobs, throw in some sensible greenery that farmers could back, and the south is extraneous.
Moreover, a campaign that runs on getting work for under-employed and unemployed Americans will resonate in the south. Good ol' boys have a fine sense of the nobility of work and of paying one's way in life. Getting them the work they need to do that plays on both side of the Mason-Dixon Line.
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