Creole Lessons

16 February 2004


Haitian Unrest Has Relevance for Iraq

For most of its history, Haiti has been a dreadfully mismanaged state. Under the Duvalier family, it became an unmitigated disaster. And so it was with some hope that Jean-Bertrand Aristide became president and, thanks to some American help, was installed to lead his people. Thanks to a tainted election, whatever good he has done is vanishing, and Haiti gives the world of foreshadowing of events in Iraq for the future.

In the 2000 election, the opposition alleges that the president committed fraud and stole a second term. In addition, the economy has been in the trash since Napoleon lost the island (and in fact, before that), and so there is a large body of disappointed people. In the good old days, Papa Doc and Baby Doc could have ignored the people because the Ton Ton Macoutes secret police would kill enough protesters to shut the rest up. President Aristide lacks a secret police force. Indeed, he doesn't seem to have much of a security apparatus secret or otherwise. Things will get worse before they get better.

Iraq is looking forward to a similar situation. With the Saddamites gone, there is no lid on the unrest that will arise if elections are delayed, or if elections are seen as unfair. Currently, the Iraqis appear to have a choice between elections that don't happen for months, or elections that will have none of the usual safeguards to ensure the will of the people is made clear. The Sunni feel threatened with the loss of position, the Shi'ites demand to be heard for once, and the Kurds aren't entirely sure if they want anything more to do with Baghdad (and whatever happened to self-determination?).

Add to this a western occupation that is still having trouble keeping the power on in Baghdad, and the parallels are uncomfortably close. Politically divided and economically weak, Iraq needs civil strife like it needs a kick in the head from a mule -- not at all. Yet that is what is on order.

It is not too late, but the chances of doing what needs doing are slim and fading. The UN has got to tell the Iraqi people that any election right now would be open to corruption, and the US has got to hand the election process over to the UN because America is not seen as an unbiased referee. Instead, though, the US and the UN will cobble together some sort of deal whereby Iraq gets to be ruled by American-chosen Iraqis this summer, and the civil strife will start shortly after that. Indeed, the bombings in Baghdad last week were Iraqis killing Iraqis, the civil war about which this journal warned some time ago.

Home