Further Objections?

16 February 2004


Kerry Wins Big in Virginia and Tennessee

The mistaken belief that the south is the key to the White House was not shattered by last Tuesday's primaries in Virginia and Tennessee, but the false premise that "Johnny Reb won't vote for no damnyankee" certainly was. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts had a healthy plurality in Tennessee, and in Virginia, he garnered an outright majority. The Democrats all across the country seem to have decided that "by any means necessary" is the real slogan for 2004.

The punditocracy has held all along that, when the campaign got to the south, northern liberals like Senator Kerry and Governor Howard Dean would take a pounding from good ol' boys like Senator John Edwards and former General Wesley Clark. With Mr. Kerry's showing, there has been a scramble among the babbling classes to argue that General Clark's withdrawal makes it a Kerry-Edwards race, and that Senator Edwards can still take the rest of the south and do well enough everywhere else to take the nomination. Barring a tremendous series of Dean-like blunders, Senator Kerry will continue to beat Senator Edwards for a few more weeks. After all, 52% of the vote in Virginia undermines the entire argument about splitting the anti-Kerry vote -- such a faction is a minority.

Once the junior senator from Massachusetts is the far side of 1,500 delegates, there is a chance that Democratic voters will express some "buyer's remorse" and hand someone else a victory or two. This is what happened in 1976, when Governor Carter had just about reached the nominating threshold; Governor Jerry Brown of California beat the future nominee and president in 7 races (if one includes an uncommitted slate that opted for Mr. Brown prior to balloting day). It wasn't enough to stop the Georgian, but it made for a few interesting newscasts.

Moreover, Governor Dean is still in the race (and has more delegates that Senator Edwards), although since the New Hampshire primary it has been hard to tell. No major candidate has run such a miserable and ineffective campaign since Kim Campbell led the 1993 Progressive Conservatives in Canada and went from 169 seats in a 295 seat House of Commons to just 2 -- and lost her own seat in British Columbia. However, if he should decide to turn up and fight, he becomes an alternative. There are still three major candidates in the race for now no matter what the opinionated may say.

However, the remainder of this race will see Mr. Kerry ignoring his rivals, and he will endeavor to pose as a president-in-waiting. Mr. Bush has had a bad couple of weeks, and Iraq will hang over his head for the rest of his administration, giving Mr. Kerry a constant opening. Yet, Mr. Bush has often been, to use his word, "misunderestimated" by those working against him. This will be an ugly race, and in the end, the winner will be the one who has convinced a narrow, undecided middle that jobs are coming. And a terrorist attack on the US mainland will ruin every existing scenario.

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