| Cancel the Paranoia |
23 February 2004
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Canceling Flights is a Terrorist Victory
It has become commonplace for flights from Europe to be canceled due to terror threats. Indeed, it was a relief to see that around 60% of the flights in France last week were due to an air-traffic controllers' strike -- it made one nostalgic for the 1980s. However, deciding to ground planes based on the best intelligence is bad policy.
There is enough doubt these days that the intelligence upon which people in Washington and London act is worth anything. Presuming, though, that there is solid evidence that a specific flight on a specific day will suffer an attack of some sort, what is gained by the Heimatschutzministerium (more honest sounding than Department of Homeland Security") canceling the flight? The terrorists' plans are foiled, but not in any meaningful way. All they need to do is reschedule. Then, one must hope that the spies on the side of goodness find out about that, so that the next event can be foiled by a cancellation. This goes on until the terrorists succeed or die of old age -- it is not a winning strategy.
Far better, to let the flight proceed as scheduled. Put enough air marshals on board to prevent a hijacking, open every suitcase three times, and put dogs on all of it. The flight need not ever leave the ground. But by announcing days in advance that "evil-doers" need not turn up, the chance to catch them vanishes.
This is the problem in the west today. There is every chance that the intelligence is highly accurate and comes from reliable sources, but it is squandered by the political leadership. Al-Qaeda doesn't even need to turn up for its terrorist activities -- a phone call is enough to ground a plane. Their attack comes by cell phone, and a canceled flight is a very costly and ineffective response.
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