On Wisconsin

23 February 2004


Wisconsin Primary Means Less than Media Think

The only solid fact that the press seems to be able to report about last week's Wisconsin Primary is the final result -- Senator Kerry 40%, Senator Edwards 34%, Governor Dean 18%, Congressman Kucinich 3%, Reverend Sharpton 2%, General Clark 2%. Everything else that was printed or broadcast was tempest-in-a-teapot bloviation.

The biggest non-truth was the "strong showing of Senator Edwards." The runner-up, no matter how it is spun, is the first-place loser, and a 6% margin is not a squeaker. And in the delegate count, despite all his strong performances, MNSBC still has him 11 delegates behind Governor Dean. This is not to say that Senator Edwards isn't a good candidate -- he's the best on the stump of the entire bunch. Moreover, he understands that the general election will be fought on three issues: jobs, jobs and jobs. And with far less time in the Senate than Mr. Kerry, his voting record will be harder for the GOP to pick apart. However, at some point, he has to win something more than South Carolina. A strong showing eventually has to mean a plurality, which he failed to get in Wisconsin.

Next in line is the future of the Deaniacs, those enthusiastic winter soldiers for Howard Dean. The pundits claim Governor Dean has a mailing list worth committing homicide to obtain, that he has supporters that the Democratic party needs in November, and that he has the ability to influence the party as the convention approaches. One might take this all more seriously if the Deaniacs had managed to win a single state. The truth is there was enthusiasm for just about everything but getting to the polls. Moreover, Wisconsin didn't kill the Dean effort -- losing Iowa and New Hampshire and then deciding not to fight the following week brought on Howard's End. And "Take Back America" was Jerry Brown's slogan 12 years ago.

Another surreal statement, as exemplified in a Washington Post headline, is "Coronation Put on Hold." Senator Kerry has about 25% of the delegates he needs to lock up the nomination. The inevitability factor was a creation of the press. More delegates will be selected on Super Tuesday, March 2, than have been chosen thus far. Even if there was a coronation in the works, how does a victory by 6% over the nearest contender put such an event on hold -- a second place finish might, but a win?

The current state of play gives Senator Kerry the lead, and it is hard to see him losing it between now and mid-March. Senator Edwards is a credible alternative, and in some ways is preferable, but if he isn't in the race to be vice-president or if his campaign isn't a dry-run for 2008, he needs to start winning. Governor Dean can still carry the state of Vermont on Super Tuesday if he wants to do the job, but he hasn't so far; he has squandered every chance given him. The preceding sentences could have been written two weeks ago, and Wisconsin's ballots changed nothing. Unfortunately, that doesn't sell papers, so the media have had to create bubbles to burst.

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