Schroeder’s SDP Loses North Rhine-Westphalia by Less than Expected

Politics is often a matter of managing the expectations of the electorate, much like business is often about managing expectations of shareholders. In the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, the expectation was that the Social Democrats, the ruling party of Chancellor Schroeder, would get crushed because of labor reforms and welfares cuts. Instead, the party got crushed by only 2.2% more than in the 1999 vote in local council and mayoral elections. This is victory in politics.

The SDP garnered a rather disappointing 31.7% of the vote, down from 33.9% in 1999. The conservative Christian Democratic Union saw its support erode by much more, down to 43.4% compared with 50.3% in 1999. On the heels of the CDU’s losses in Brandenburg and Saxony last week, it is becoming clear that the opposition in Germany can’t effectively oppose Mr. Schroeder.

The Greens saw their share of the vote rise to 10.3% from 7.3%, and the Free Democrats earned 6.8% of the vote, up from 4.3% in 1999. What was missing from this election was any support whatsoever for the former communists and the neo-Nazis who have done so well in the former Soviet zone of occupation. The protest votes went where they have gone for the last quarter of a century.

It is, of course, a bit dangerous to suggest that local elections in a single state albeit a populous one (18 million live in North Rhine-Westphalia out of a total German population of 82.4 million, and 14 million are voters). However, coupled with a recent ZDF poll that shows support for Mr. Schroeder’s reforms exceeds opposition for the first time ever (48% pro, 45% anti), the worst may be over the for governing SDP.

SPD chairman Franz Muentefering said, "It's not a result that makes us whoop for joy but it's a good basis for the future." In other words, it could have been much worse, and the SDP is grateful that it can claim to have held the line. It’s not much, but with the general election not due until 2006, it might be good enough. The CDU, on the other hand, needs to decide what can be done before it loses a third general election running.


© Copyright 2004 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.


Home