Second-Class Applicant

8 October 2004


EU Invites Turkey to Join, Sort of, Maybe, Later

The European Commission agreed to enter into negotiations on admitting Turkey. The expansion into Asia Minor means a great many potential changes to Europe. Never before has so large and so poor a nation joined. The entire country qualifies for the subsidies that normally go to economically regions inside member states. And it would be the only Muslim neighbor of largely Catholic, and currently Christian (or post-Christian), Europe. While the agreement to talk is long overdue, the conditions the commission set make it clear that Turkey is being offered second-class treatment.

Turkey is far from a paradise. Its 70 million population has a per capita GDP is 27% of the EU average. The employment rate for adults, which admittedly misses the grey and black economies, is just 45.5%. And as the commission said, “"freedom of expression, freedom of religion, women's rights, trade union rights and minority rights" aren’t what they could or should be.

That said, the ex-communist states of Eastern Europe were hardly ideal members at the outset. Poland may be the best example of just what EU membership can do to secure a nation’s commonwealth. But the Turks have been told that the negotiations are to be "an open-ended process whose outcome cannot be guaranteed beforehand." No other potential member has ever been denied admission once the terms of negotiation have started. Moreover, a "permanent safeguard clause can be considered" to prevent Turks from moving freely within Europe looking for work. Germany already has 2.7 million Turks or their descendants (few of whom have been given citizenship despite speaking German and having been born there), and other nations fear an influx of cheap labor. This is racism masquerading as concern for local economics as no other nation has been forced to accept a permanent ban on unfettered labor mobility (which is, indeed, bad economics in the long-run).

Given Turkish birth rates, Belgian MEP Philip Claeys MEP observed, "The largest member-state of the EU will not even be a European country" in future. Well, 3% of Turkey is in Europe, but the point is valid. The CIA says Germany has a population of 82.42 million; Turkey has 68.89 million, France and the UK just top 60 million each, and Italy has 58 million. Turkey will eventually be bigger than even German, but that is all the more reason to ensure Turkey is inside rather than outside the European tent. The EU has been a force for stability, and it is clearly better to have a stable Turkey than an unstable one. And if that means the French, Germans and Italians lose some of their influence, well, what’s a little more after the last 150 years?

As a secular Muslim nation, yet still a religious one, Turkey and Indonesia offer pathways to modernity for the rest of the Muslim world. Without modernization, Usama bin Laden may recruit freely. With a Turkish star in the European constellation, his madness becomes much harder to sell. By all means, build in safeguards to keep the integration of Turkey on an even keel, to ensure success. But get on with the job.

© Copyright 2004 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.

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