Paper Tigers

25 October 2004


Iran Replies to EU Non-Proliferation Offer with a Loud “No”

On Thursday, Britain, France and Germany made their “final” offer to Iran on trade and nuclear energy assistance in exchange for the theocrats in Tehran giving up their quest for the Bomb. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said Iran responded with a resounding “No,” saying further that, "We regard the European proposals as an initial and not the final proposal." Iran holds all the cards, here, so the fact that there is even a consideration of this offer is hopeful. However, the world needs to realize that there is absolutely nothing anyone can do if Iran decides to go nuclear. And if it doesn’t, it’s just a matter of getting the price right to call the bluff.

Before going any farther, it is important to note that the International Atomic Energy Agency has looked into Iranian activities over the last two years and, to date, has found no evidence whatsoever that the mullahs have done anything to develop a fission device. So before the West gets wound up over nothing, as it did in Iraq, a cold look at reality is needed. As of now, there is no proof that Iran is working on a bomb.

Iran maintains that it needs to develop a nuclear energy industry. For a nation floating on a sea of oil, this is utter nonsense. Iran will be one of the last places on earth to run dry. Their position just doesn’t hold water. And so, there are two plausible pretexts for this atomic sabre-rattling. First, they really do want the Bomb and are working on it despite the IAEA’s inability to prove the fact. Or, they are making a lot of noise in the hope that they can win trade and aid from other countries in exchange for giving up something they can’t pull off anyway.

On November 25, the governing board of the IAEA will meet to consider whether sanctions are warranted. This means a great deal of diplomacy over the next four weeks. If there is a trade and aid deal, Iran isn’t serious about the Bomb. Any nation that truly believes its national security hinges on a nuclear deterrent won’t surrender it for anything. If there is no deal, it means Iran believes that it whatever it is working on is worth whatever sanctions get imposed.

In the end, though, there is no Plan B. There is no military option and there are no other nations who will act. The EU3, as the media have dubbed the triumvirate of nations negotiating with Iran, have no military option. The US has ceded the initiative to the EU3, and wisely so with an election and two unfinished wars on its hands. The Chinese don’t appear to care, as they have their hands full with part-time ally, North Korea. Russia has sold Iran the nuclear technology it already has. The mullahs probably aren’t poker players, but if they were, they would know what its like to hold a royal flush.

© Copyright 2004 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.

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