Bush’s Second Term Can’t Do Much More Harm Overseas

The Bush team has changed, probably forever, the foreign policy of the United States. For good or ill is neither here nor there; America now goes to war pre-emptively. The Yanks are coming and if anyone else wants to help, they’re welcome. But if not, don’t expect any reconstruction contracts. That rather cartoonish description, while more or less accurate, ignores one very important fact – American power is overwhelming but not infinite.

The American military is not quite at the breaking point, despite what the more partisan analysts have said during the campaign. But the breaking point is in sight. It has long been Pentagon policy to equip America’s armed forces to fight two regional wars simultaneously. Could it be that Iraq and Afghanistan are those two wars? Those who worry about a war with Iran or with North Korea are rightly concerned with the tension that exists at these global flash points, but America would need troops in position to launch a pre-emptive strike. There are insufficient numbers to do that. Even with a draft, it would take better than a year to train and position troops and equipment to fight an aggressive war against either power.

Economically, America is running out of options. Foreign aid is not going to rise in the next four years, and if anything it will be cut. The dollar will continue its decline, given America’s budget and trade deficits – and the resolution of the latter is up to Asian economies whose currencies are pegged to the buck. Oil prices at $50 a barrel and rising will keep US economic growth from reaching its potential.

Finally, there is cultural power. For almost seventy years, American culture has been exported through film, music, radio, TV and, yes, military bases. The Japanese play baseball, Budweiser sells (for some reason) in British pubs, German rock and roll bands are the heaviest of metal. In the old Soviet Union, blue jeans were prized beyond any other fashion. McDonald’s is on sale in Paris, Rome, and Sydney. It is the most enduring of America’s influences, and America culture will affect global civilization long after the United States ceases to be a hyperpower. But by creating hostility to American culture by strutting upon the world stage, Mr. Bush is surrendering America’s greatest weapon -- the belief in the rest of the world that Americans are the guys in the white hats.


© Copyright 2004 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.


Home