EU3 and Iran Cut Nuke Deal

On the surface, the deal between the EU3, as Britain, France and Germany have become known, and the theocracy of Iran to halt the latter’s “peaceful” nuclear program is an unenforceable charade, a fig leaf. However, the bargain that appears to have been struck over the week-end, and which still requires some finalizing, makes a virtue of necessity on both sides. It is diplomacy at its finest, leaving everyone with something, and giving everyone’s domestic opposition a stick with which to beat the government. The parties have made a lousy deal because that was the only one they could get.

The basic principles of the accord are easy enough to understand. Iran will mothball its enrichment of uranium in exchange for trade and aid. The suspension of enrichment begins right away. As Iran’s nuclear negotiator, Hossein Mousavian, described it, “We accept suspension as a voluntary measure on the basis of agreement with the European Union.” It’s a “confidence building” action rather than a “legal obligation.” That will come when the final details are hammered out.

When the suspension is over and the deal is done, “Europe will support Iran’s joining the international group of states possessing the ability to manufacture nuclear fuel” Mr. Mousavian said. That means that it changes category under the Non-Proliferation Treaty and can, in future, produce fissionables if it wants. There will be a hue and cry from the dogmatists that the EU3 have given into nuclear blackmail. In fact, all they have done is concede a point that reality has already accepted. Iran has the ability to make these isotopes, so legal recognition offers a carrot out of nothing.

Far more troubling is the fact that this was the best anyone could do. There cannot be an attack that takes down Iran’s nuclear program. After the Israelis destroyed the Osirak site in Iraq back in the early 1980s, the world’s would-be nuclear powers realized that a decentralized program is immune to attack – an enemy would never get it all. Moreover, Iran has no internal need to stop the enrichment program. There is no Iranian environmentalist/peacenik movement to slow progress – if there were, the members of such a movement would be in jail.

So, why did Iran accept the deal? Why not? Time is not working against Iran. Without any military threat against it, it can pick and choose the moment it goes nuclear. If better relations with Europe are possible, and trade and aid concessions are on offer, why not give in on enrichment for a few months. Militants will say the Iranian government has surrendered to the west, but that is nonsense. It accepted a bribe. When the bribe is spent or has outlived its usefulness, the program will resume.

The whole thing is diplomacy at its finest – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear.


© Copyright 2004 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.


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