Coup by Ballot

10 December 2004



Iraq’s Shi’ites Present Unified List for Upcoming Election

The Iraqi population is roughly 60% Shi’ite Muslim, 20% Arab Sunni Muslim, and 20% Kurd, with smatterings of others. This means that the government of Iraq derived from any truly free election is likely to be Shi’ite-based. The only hope for those opposed to such is a split within the Shi’ite community. Yesterday, the United Iraqi Alliance put forward a single Shi’ite list, avoiding that very thing.

According to the electoral law for January 31’s vote, Iraq will be treated as a single constituency with 275 seats handed out by proportional representation. This means that each party registered will put up as many as 275 candidates (if it can find that many – the UIA list has 228 names), and seats will be awarded starting with those on the top of the list. A slate will get 40% of the seats if it wins 40% of the vote.

In a sense, Iraq’s government will be a case of one man one vote. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani is the one man, and he has cast his vote in favor of the UIA list. He formally approved it yesterday. This makes it much harder for the Sunni politicians who are calling for a delay in the voting, while making it more likely that a Sunni boycott will happen. If voting happens along religious and ethnic lines, the Sunni are doomed to permanent minority status in a country without any constitution protection for minorities (drafting a constitution will come after these elections).

The UIA list does have names on it belonging to Kurds, the Yazidi religious minority and some Turkomen. And this will soften the edges of the new government, but by putting together a single list blessed by the Grand Ayatollah, the election results are a foregone conclusion. Moreover, not many minority groups member’s names are in the top 150, meaning that the others are window-dressing because they won’t get elected.

The only potential split in the Shi’ite community really came from hot-headed mullah Moqtada al-Sadr, who put Falluja on the map. He has played a very sound game of pre-election politics, not registering with the electoral commission, and therefore, staying out of the fight over seats. At the same time, it is unlikely that he has no supporters at all on the UIA list. Nuclear physicist Hussain Shahristani, who was one of half a dozen to draw up the UIA list, said in an AP report, “The Sadrist movement announced that it supports the religious authorities and its call for Iraqis to hold elections. It also supports the list.” The firebrand knows how old Ayatollah Sistani is, and who old he himself is. He can afford to wait, and by avoiding electoral politics, he keeps his options open. Ahead lies electoral politics, but that isn’t quite the same thing as democracy, which isn’t the same thing as liberty.

© Copyright 2004 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.

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