Turkish Membership in EU is Not a Done Deal

Judging by the welcome Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan received on his return from EU accession negotiations, everyone in the Turkish republic is thrilled to pieces about the deal on further negotiations. While the press in Western Europe is not quite as ecstatic, the governments of the EU seem to be pleased with themselves. But an agreement to talk about an agreement isn't much to cheer about. Moreover, it almost didn't happen. While it is vital for the development of the EU and for Turkey that these further talks succeed, the recently finished talks suggest that difficult barely begins to describe the problem.

There is a great deal that will get done without much haggling. Around 80,000 pages of EU law need to become Turkish law, but that takes only a simple act of the Turkish parliament. A trickier point concerns the free movement of labor. Turkey would be the second largest nation in the EU after Germany, and it would be one of the poorest. Needless to say, some countries are worried about a flood of cheap Turkish labor, which would alter the demography radically.

However, the deal breaker is Cyprus. The Turks will need to extend its customs union with the old EU (the so-called "Ankara Agreement") to the new 10 members. Cyprus is one of those 10, but Turkey refuses to recognize the government. The northern half of the island is Turkish by ethnicity, and the government of the Turkish part of the island is not recognized by any government except the Ankara one. It will also be recalled that the referendum on finally resolving the situation in Cyprus was accepted by the Turkish side, rejected by the Greek Cypriots, and therefore, only the Greek side is represented in the EU -- a twist of illogic only understandable under the laws of international diplomacy.

The Turkish Prime Minister may have to recognize the Cyprus government later, but to have done so last week would have set off nationalist demonstrations at home this week-end. Rather than do that, at one stage of the negotiations, he called the airport and got his plane ready to take him back to Turkey without a deal. It took President Jacques Circa of France, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of Germany and British Prime Minister Tony Blair to get a compromise before the limo pulled up.

Even at the closing chat with the media, Mr. Erdogan broke with custom (it is typical at EU talks to blather on about how swell everything went) and said he wouldn't recognize Cyprus. Tassos Papadopoulos, who is the (Greek) Cypriot president and will play the role of rejectionist for the next few years, replied in kind with harsh words of rebuke. Bernie Ahern, Ireland's Taoiseach and a rather good fellow, said that Mr. Erdogan's "bitter" words were "regrettable." In EU diplomacy, that passes for tough talk. There's a whole lot more of that ahead.

© Copyright 2004 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.

Home