Predictions from 2003 Look OK, Not Great
A year ago, this journal stuck its neck out and made a few predictions – eleven to be precise. Three were completely wrong. Two others turned out to be partially correct. Six were spot on – but there were a couple of easy ones in that mix.
- “The Dow and the US dollar will both end up higher December 31, 2004 than they are on December 31, 2003.” The result: 50% right, 50% wrong. The Fed’s tightening was expected to be farther along by now.
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“Howard Dean will be nominated by the Democrats at their Boston convention after the Stop-Dean movement never really gets off the ground.” An over-estimation of the effectiveness of the Deaniacs in Iowa. Organization can only be measured by votes.
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“George W. Bush will be re-elected with around 300 electoral votes. This time he will have more popular votes than any other candidate.” Right. Actually 286 electoral votes and a 3 million popular vote cushion.
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“There will not be peace in the Mid-East 12 months from now. This can be measured by whether a treaty is signed.” Dead right – but one will never go broke betting against peace in the Mid-East.
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“There will be a scurry of activity in Iraq when weapons of mass destruction are allegedly found. The report will be incorrect.” No WMD, but no major false report either.
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“The space shuttle will not fly in 2004 and discussions of ending its life will begin officially at NASA.” Right, time to get rid of this white elephant.
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“SARS will return as a scare, but the disease will not be as bad as last year's outbreak as measured by fewer deaths.” Correct, and Asian bird flu stole the thunder this year.
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“Tony Blair will see his popularity recover slightly. His approval ratings will be higher 12 months from now than they are today.” They aren’t. No statistically valid improvement in MORI or ICM/Guardian polls.
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“There will not be an attack in the US by foreign terrorists -- when it comes to home-grown loonies, all bets are off.” 100% right. The terrorists are all in Iraq and Afghanistan.
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“North Korea's nuclear program will still be a problem.” Another easy bet.
- “Saddam Hussein will be sentenced to death.” Wrong, for now.
Friday, the predictions for 2005.
© Copyright 2004 by
The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without
written consent.
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