Iraqi PM Allawi Says Some Places to Dangerous for Vote

The Bush administration has tried selling the world on the idea that the Iraqi election on January 30 will be a wonderful exercise in self-determination and will provide an opportunity for real social progress. Apparently, the memo hasn’t reached the Satrap of Mesopotamia. Otherwise known as Iraq’s prime minister, Ayad Allawi, said the security situation would prevent some parts of his nation from voting. He told the world yesterday, “Certainly, there are some pockets who [sic] will not take part in these elections.” No matter. These elections are not that important anyway.

The idea that the elections in Iraq matter arises from a misunderstanding of just for what the Iraqis are voting. They are electing a constituent assembly that will draft a constitution under which further elections will be held in December. Only at that point will Iraq have a “democratic” government. Naturally, the Bush administration has to convince the world that the drafting of a constitution of Iraqis, by Iraqis and for Iraqis vindicates his misguided invasion.

But really, just how much flexibility will this assembly have? Security remains in the hands of America’s coalition. Drafting a constitution is a very narrow exercise (federal versus unitary, parliamentary versus presidential, some enumeration of some rights), and it really doesn’t address things like getting roads built, opening schools and hospitals, or setting up an independent central bank to guide monetary policy. Some kind of executive committee of insiders will arise to run day-to-day policy, and in that regard, it will be indistinguishable from Mr. Allawi’s administration.

So if some “pockets” of Iraq don’t vote, the political situation remains unchanged. The Shi’ites have 60% of the population and, therefore, 60% of the votes. The Sunni, with 20%, have no incentive to participate in their own political marginalization. The Kurds, who also amount to about 20% of the population, may not vote now that Mosul, one of their main population centers, is now unsafe. But if the Sunni and Kurds don’t vote, the outcome is the same as if they did – they lose.

This presumes, of course, that the Shi’ites all back the Grand Ayatollah Sistani’s Islamic list of candidates. Opinion polls show Mr. Allawi’s list getting 22% of Shi’ite support. This could be significant if true. However, one is doubtful, since Mr. Allawi’s people have been bribing the press in that country to give favorable coverage. The Financial Times reports the latest is $100 in an envelope – about half a month’s salary to Iraqi reporters. Saddam Hussein used to do the same. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.

© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.

Home