Iraqis Favor Shi’ite List in Election

The White House has tried to make the Iraqi elections held on January 30 a triumph for Mr. Bush. And for those who believe that elections are the end rather than the means, they did come off better than most expected. With the first official results out yesterday, it is clear that the Shi’ites and Kurds turned up to vote and won seats largely based on demography. The Sunni, who largely stayed at home, now have no sizeable representation in the body that will choose a new government and draft a constitution. The problem hasn’t gone away, at all.

At the root, the problem is Iraq itself. No one doubts that there is an Iraqi identity. But it is an identity that allows for a Kurdish-Iraqi sense of self, and Sunni Arab-Iraqi community, and obviously, a Shi’ite-Iraqi identity. It is a mistake to believe that this hyphenation is similar to that Americans possess. Italian-Americans are not about to undo to federal union to create an autonomous Nova Italia di America. Indeed, it might not even be correct to compare it to the Scottish and Welsh identities within the UK. If an independent Kurdistan were feasible, most Kurds would jump at the opportunity.

However, in its folly, the American occupation said from the beginning that a confederal Iraq wasn’t an option. There would be a unitary state, and there would be elections. The Sunni can count – and their 20% of the population meant about 20% of the votes, and that meant an end to their hegemony. So, there is a civil war in Iraq.

The 48% won by the Shi’ite list favored by the Grand Ayatollah Sistani looks like a rigged figure. It is large enough to allow the list to declare victory, but not quite big enough to be a majority. While there is no proof one way or the other, it smells funny. The Kurds managed to arrange for a common list among their two largest factions, and their vote mirrored that of the Kurdish population, around 22%. With 70% between them, they really don’t need anybody else. Yet, there has been some back-channel discussion with the Sunni to allow some kind of representation in the new assembly.

But this is the crucial issue, which Sunni leaders have the legitimacy to negotiate? That is the entire point of elections, to invest the various parties with the power to speak on behalf of their supporters, making allowance for the varying degrees of popularity. In Anbar province, vote turn out was 2%. Who speaks for Anbar? No one with democratic legitimacy if anyone at all does. In the end, that is the real issue. Elections are preferable to divine-right kingship, but they are only a method of bestowing political legitimacy. Beyond that, they don’t solve anything because they aren’t supposed to solve anything else. So, the question in Baghdad is still the same – “How to get the Sunni to accept permanent minority status?” The draft constitution is the key, and it will determine whether this civil war continues for months or decades.



© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.

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