Curious, isn't it, George

28 February 2005



Russia and Iran Sign Nuke Deal

The world received a lesson over the week-end in standing up to intimidation. President Bush was in Europe where he said the US had no intention of attacking Iran for its development of nuclear technology, but that said, he added, everything is on the table. On the same trip, he lectured Russian President Vladimir Putin on Russia's need to respect democratic norms, or there might be consequences for Russia's relations with the west. And as soon as Mr. Bush was back in Washington, Russian and Iran signed a deal on further development of Iran's nuclear program using Russian fissionable fuel. At least, they let him get home before ignoring this threat.

The talking heads in Washington couldn't quite figure out why Mr. Putin would do such a thing. Giving the mullahs The Bomb is certainly a threat to Russian security, given geography, and a former KGB officer like President Putin wouldn't willingly undermine the security of his own nation. Yet, the deal he signed with Tehran will bring fissionable fuel to Iran very soon. The Bushites are livid that Moscow didn't fall into line over Iraq, and now, they are blaming this latest move on a Russian inferiority complex based on the collapse of communism.

The Russian president is much smarter and wiser than that, however. While the EU led by Britain, France and Germany have been negotiating with the mullahs, and Mr. Bush has been sulking in the corner about Iran's nuclear ambitions, Mr. Putin appears to have embraced reality and come up with a way of managing things. Iran is going to get The Bomb if it truly wants it (a nation that floats on a sea of oil has no need of nuclear energy, so one may safely conclude Iran is after a nuclear capability). Europe and America cannot stop without using force, and what force they have is tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan.

By bowing to the inevitable, Mr. Putin has made a fine political judo move (recall that he has a black belt in physical judo as well and that it could well affect his thinking). Iran will take Russian fissionables, and under the treaty, Iran will return spent fuel to Russia for reprocessing or disposal. Russia will know to the milligram how much plutonium, uranium and other -iums Iran has at all times. If Iran diverts any to military use, the Russians won't be able to stop the mullahs, but the Russians the know about it at once when the returned fuel weighs in light. Indeed, under the treaty, there are mechanisms for Russian technicians to examine Iran's facilities. Russia has essentially replaced the IAEA and the European Union as the inspection authority in Iran.

As for Iran, it has managed to stand up to the Americans and the Europeans, which means a great deal for its domestic politics. The revolution, like all revolutions, is turning out to be a failure (reality is always more complicated than one's ideology makes out), and the continuation of the revolutionary regime depends in large part on maintaining both a sense of threat and a sense of resistance to that threat. Giving the Russians this access and control over Iran's nuclear program is a cheap, quick and easy way forward that doesn't weaken the theocrats' position.


© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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