Israel Readies Plan for a Strike against Iranian Nukes

The American media have yet to pick up this story, but The Sunday Times yesterday announced that the Israelis are ready to hit Iran's nuclear sites if diplomacy doesn't work in halting Tehran's atomic dreams. Moreover, the newspaper reports that the American administration is aware of the plans and has said it "would not stand in Israel's way if all international efforts to halt Iranian nuclear projects failed." Fear appears to be outstripping reason on all sides.

As the Kensington Review has said for months, Iran is not using nuclear research for a peaceful program of civilian energy generation -- which is the official line from Tehran. Iran is a nation that floats on an ocean of oil; it has no such need. The mullahs want The Bomb because they live in a rather dangerous neighborhood, and because their revolution is failing to deliver. The Bomb would give them prestige to keep the people in line a while longer.

The Israelis have The Bomb, and they believe that it is the one thing that guarantees their continued survival. The victories of 1967 and 1973 were too close for comfort, and a region nuclear monopoly lets Ariel Sharon sleep better at night. To preserve that monopoly, Tel Aviv has plans for Unit 5105, also known as Shaldag commandos, to attack various sites in Iran, as well as F-15 planes from 69 Squadron using bunker buster bombs to hit places the commandos can't. It reminds one of the attack on Saddam Hussein's nuke factory at Osirak in 1981.

The one difference between then and now is the absence of the Soviet Union, which during the Cold War managed to keep the hottest of anti-Israelis heads cool. Were Israel to attack, regardless of the degree of success, there would be no one holding back the counterstrike. Hezbollah put 500,000 protesters in the streets of Beirut a few days ago (t one-seventh of the nation's population, this is like a protest in America drawing 40 million or so); how many suicide bombers could they recruit? Could General Musharraf in Pakistan (which has The Bomb) keep his job, or would some Fascislam-loving general take over, and drop one on Jerusalem?

The west continues to negotiate, and Washington has agreed to back the EU effort with Iran. However, Iran has said, "No pressure, bribe or threat can make Iran give up it legitimate right to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes." This makes success highly unlikely, since peaceful is in the eye of the beholder. Iran is likely to get the weapon it wants, and there is nothing the west can do to stop it. However, possessing The Bomb and using it are very different things. Deterrence during the Cold War worked; no atomic weapon has been used in anger for almost 60 years. Perhaps the solution is not to stop Iran from getting nukes (since that seems to be impossible) but rather to make sure Iran is held responsible for what happens to those weapons once it develops them. There are no good policy solutions, but there are ways to keep things from decaying beyond a certain level if one acknowledges that perfect security just isn't possible.


© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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