End of the Line?

21 March 2005



French Poll Shows Majority is Against EU Constitution

The original 6 countries in the European Common Market, which evolved into the current 25 member European Union, had very clear nationalistic reasons for joining. Germany needed to find a way back into the human race after the Nazi abomination. Italy, to a lesser extent, sought the same purge of its history as well as a chance to develop its economy. Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg needed to find a way to participate in global affairs despite their size. And France needed a vehicle to rein in Germany and project French power beyond it real capacity to do so. These nations have always been at the core of Europe, and it was a shock to discover that most French voters now oppose the new European Constitution.

Since they are scheduled to vote in a referendum on that constitution on May 29, this matters a great deal. At 51% in the most recent poll, a "Non" vote would sink the new constitution and mortally wound the effort of ever tighter integration of the EU member states. Norway can turn down membership all together, and the UK can keep the pound instead of using the euro. These are minor issues, since neither Norway nor the UK are really at the heart of the European experiment. The French occupy a far different position.

Part of the hostility to the new constitution comes from the support the agreement has from the French government. With unemployment breaking the 10% barrier recently, and the government fighting to end the 35-hour work week, French labor is feeling out of sorts with the Socialist government. Add in the recent scandal over his official apartment that forced out the finance minister, and much of this can be put down to an unpopular phase for the government that will end before May 29.

But, more fundamentally, Europe is not evolving the way the French anticipated. It is not forming a United States of Europe, but rather it is following Baroness Thatcher and General De Gaulle's goal of a league of nations, each independent and proud. This is a view France abandoned long ago. Moreover, it is an unashamedly market-driven, capitalist union -- an Anglo-American view that the French still view as suspect. And there is the question of a Europe in which Turkey has as much say as France -- should the Muslim state gain membership.

In the end, the government is likely to win the day. However, it will be a close vote, and much will depend on turnout. Few will take it seriously if the constitution should go down to defeat if 60% of French voters stay at home. There would be room for some face-saving reversal. But if turnout approaches 60% or more, any defeat is likely to be binding.


© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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