Iraqi Parliament Still Can't Pick a Government

The "watershed" elections in Iraq were two months ago. Election officials announced the results February 14. And after weeks of arguing, negotiating and deal-making, there is still no democratically elected government in place. Yesterday, the Prime Minister walked out of Parliament, the acting speaker threw out the media declaring the meeting would continue in secret, and the session ended without a government to receive an up or down vote. Democracy is a messy thing, and there is no reason to believe that the Iraqis won't be able to work out their difference eventually. However, the lesson for the world is not a new one. Elections do not solve the problems of a society; they merely offer a mechanism for establishing the relative power of competing interests.

In most democracies, any coalition that holds 215 seats out of 275 can do just about anything it wants to do. And the Shi'ite Alliance and the Kurds in the Iraqi National Assembly have that many votes. However, operating in a state of political realism, they have wisely chosen to set aside some levers of power for the Sunni community that largely boycotted the January 30 vote. That includes the job of Speaker of the National Assembly. The difficulty is deciding which Sunni gets the position. The Kurds and Shi'ites are trying to get the few Sunni members of the assembly to unite behind a candidate. Ghazi al-Yawer, the interim president and a Sunni, turned down the job, asking to be one of the two vice presidents instead -- he stormed out of the meeting in frustration after the Prime Minister led the way. The others have little standing among the insurgents or even the broader Sunni community because their participation in the election has tainted their reputations.

Without a speaker, the assembly cannot get one with consideration of the other positions, like president, the two vice presidents or any cabinet jobs. It is customary in all assemblies (national legislatures, trade unions, stamp collecting societies) to choose a chair before conducting other business. An acting-speaker just isn't good enough, as it suggests there is no acting majority in the body. Since the Sunni members are fragmented and lack a mandate from their own community, their inability to make a choice is leading the other groups to consider acting on their own. Spokesman for the Shi'ite Alliance, Abdel al-Hakim, said, "If they cannot name someone, then the Alliance and the Kurds will chose the speaker." And Mishan al-Jibouri, a Sunni, told Reuters that if they did, the Sunni would walk out of the assembly.

Of course, nothing in politics is easy. Presuming that there was a sudden national consensus on which Sunni would be speaker, there is still the matter of selecting the entire executive. The president and his two vice presidents have to be elected by 2/3 majorities in the assembly, which means the Shi'ite and Kurds have to agree on names. Shi'ite Ibrahim Jaafari looks set to be president, and Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, will get one of the vice presidencies. Once they are chosen, they must select a prime minister, who will then pick a cabinet -- and both steps may take a while.

The cabinet jobs are partially settled, with the Kurds getting the Foreign Ministry and the Sunni getting Defense. The Oil Ministry is still a troublesome spoil to allocate. The Kurds want it, and the Shi'ites insist on it. Shi'ite Jawaad al-Maliki said, "The Kurds will have enough key posts. We insist on the Oil Ministry." Which would give the Shi'ites control of the national purse -- which is a winning hand long-term. And that is why many Sunni are betting on bullets rather than ballots. The civil war in Iraq continues.


© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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