Ecuador's President Ousted by Protests, Congress

Lucio Gutierrez came to power in Ecuador in November 2002, elected following an indigenous uprising which he led, and a military coup. Three and a half years of bungling later, the people took to the streets, the military sat on its hands, and the legislature in Ecuador voted to remove him for "abandoning his post." He is now hiding in the Brazilian embassy in Quito, and the former vice president, Alfredo Palacio, is now trying to run the country. Elections soon would help but only if a few lessons get absorbed.

First, the military in Latin America has traditionally been the arbiter of political power in times of instability, and recently, there have been signs across the globe that military men don't want the headaches of governing. The recent protests that brought about a fair election in Ukraine could have been crushed by a few tanks, but no armored unit got orders to move. The same applied in Kyrgyz and Georgia. Even in Venezuela, where the military backed a coup, the middle ranks and grunts sided with the people in the streets to keep President Chavez in office (wanker though he is). Now, the military of Ecuador chose not to intervene to save Mr. Gutierrez, and the chief of police resigned rather than crack down on the crowds. Perhaps an evolution is occurring, and soldiers won't shoot at the people they are pledged to protect. Tiananmen Square was a long time ago.

Second, Mr. Gutierrez tried to play autocrat and lost his job as a result. On April 15, he announced that he was dissolving the Supreme Court and appointing his own guys while imposing a state of emergency in Quito. That brought people into the streets. There was no reason for him to get rid of the court, and had he wanted to do so, he could get congress to amend the constitution. There are ways to grab power that are more subtle than others.

Third, oil wealth doesn't help as much as some people think. Thanks to poor policy in America and economic growth in China, oil is expensive, and Ecuador has some. The GDP grew by 7% last year, and for the first time in anybody's memory, the government posted a fiscal surplus. It didn't save Mr. Gutierrez, who used some of the money to buy friends and influence people. Turns out he didn't bribe enough folks and running an honest regime would have been more effective.

In nine years, the people of Ecuador have tossed out their elected leader three times. Another election may provide a new leader, but it will do little to undo a culture in which a vote of no-confidence can come from the streets. With fissile party politics, perhaps the country should switch to a parliamentary system. It can be no worse than the current arrangement.


© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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