Iraqi Shi’ite Civil War Underway

Whether the US government cares to use the term “Iraqi Civil War” or not, that is an accurate description of the situation in Mesopotamia. On Wednesday, that war took on a twist as the Shi’ite community in Iraq erupted into a civil war of its own. Pro-government Shi’ites of the Badr militia attacked and burned the offices of anti-government Moqtada Sadr, a man who years from know will be known as Iraq’s Ayatollah Khomeini.

The radical Shi’ite cleric has aligned himself with the Sunni rejectionists over the draft constitution because he opposed federalism for Iraq as they do. However, the reasons are much different. The Sunni fear that federalism will leave them without any oil money and create an Sunni Bantustan, which is hard to accept for the people who were top dog under the Saddamite regime. Mr. Sadr, on the other hand, objects to federalism because it takes power away from the center – a place he intends to occupy.

The mullah has played Washington like an accordion, squeezing here and expanding there as it suited him, ever since Proconsul Paul Bremer stupidly shut down his Al Hawza newspaper. He wound up leading the revolt in Najaf which resulted in a rather glorious negotiated settlement to his benefit, and it is only the Ayatollah Sistani’s relative moderation that is keeping the Medhi Army that backs Mr. Sadr from making a military bid for power. His appeal for calm after his offices were attacked and the obedience of his followers is a hardly veiled threat to the government. He is the one who decides if there is violence, and so, he is the true power in the land.

It is clear to anyone who can count that the Shi’ite community in Iraq has the votes to do as it will. Thus far, the fighting and negotiating has been among Sunnis, Kurds and Shi’ites. Now, there is a cleavage in the Shi’ite community between those politicians who sat out the Saddamite years in the comfort of Iranian exile (relatively comfortable at least) like the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which relies on the Badr militia (Badr, Sadr, could it be the differences are BS?), and those like the canny mullah who stayed and suffered (indeed, the Saddamites killed his father).

Meanwhile, the transitional National Assembly, which was to have approved the draft constitution on Monday and which gave itself an extension until yesterday, announced that is won’t meet to vote after all. There seems to be a deal on some of the language in dispute, but not enough to sit down and call the question. And Mr. Sadr doesn’t care what the outcome is. With a constitution, he has a huge following to vote his way, and without one, he has a huge armed following and no need to vote.



© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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