Sunnis Caught on Horns of Dilemma

The Iraqi Parliament decided not to vote on the draft constitution recently presented to it for two reasons. First, there would have been a very large Sunni vote against it, which would have thrown the whole process into doubt. Second, the parliament didn’t need to vote on it. The referendum in October will decide whether the Iraqis have a constitution of their own drafting or whether the Sunnis can figure out how to stop it. The trouble is, to shoot down a constitution they don’t like, the Sunnis will have to accept the legitimacy of the current regime by voting in that referendum.

The rules of the referendum are clear cut. If 2/3 of the voters in three of Iraq’s 18 provinces reject the constitution, it will be defeated. The Sunni compose a majority in four provinces. So, in theory, the interests of this minority (some 15-20% of the population of the country) are protected to a degree. And if they do trigger this veto, then the entire process starts again. It will be very messy, and it will entail the Americans staying on even longer.

And this is the awkward part for the Sunni rejectionists, who incidentally make a pretty good case that they are getting the short end of the stick. Either they will boycott the election as they did in the selection of the national assembly, or they will vote against the current draft hoping to get 67% or better of the vote. In either case, they run the risk of events passing them by. An electoral boycott rarely results in a “fairer” rerun; usually, the boycotting side retains its integrity, loses its seats and has to wait a few years to get another chance at getting it right. Yet, turning up to vote against something that will keep one’s land occupied by foreign troops to get a better deal for one’s ethnic groups doesn’t seem to be terribly patriotic.

In Tikrit on Monday, hundreds demonstrated against the constitution, including one fellow with a large Saddam Hussein photo. The slogans were as catchy as “No to the Zionist-American-Iranian constitution!” But the point was that there are pockets of Iraq that won’t be satisfied with the current draft, and the nation risks an escalation of the current civil war if things proceed without taking them into account. In other words, while the Sunnis may be on the losing side no matter how this turns out, the Shi’ite and Kurdish communities will have the size of their victory capped.

One thing the government must do is increase the number of voter registration centers, especially in Sunni areas. Earlier this week, Hundreds demanded just that in the streets of Ramadi, capital of heavily Sunni Anbar provice where just 2% of the people voted in the last election. As the Washington Post noted, “With a Sept. 1 deadline looming to register, only 19 of the 28 centers in Anbar have opened, although the national election commission said Monday that it would extend registration there until Sept. 7.” The Sunnis may boycott or vote “no” in huge numbers, but the government of Iraq cannot be seen to do anything to hold that number down by failing to register people who want to vote.


© Copyright 2005 by The Kensington Review, J. Myhre, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent.
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